Thursday, October 29
ECB rate decision
The second of three central banks this week.
See the whole week ›A packed calendar ahead. Three central banks, major earnings, inflation data, and a large derivatives expiry. But I think the timing matters more than the headlines themselves.
A month ago, markets leaned toward an October Fed hike. Today, futures price roughly a 90% chance of a hold.
So Wednesday's decision is largely expected. What Warsh says about December could matter more, especially with fresh GDP and inflation data arriving less than a day later.
Meanwhile, the positioning setup is interesting. Roughly a third of Deribit's BTC options open interest expires Friday. Calls account for nearly two-thirds of that expiry, with significant positioning built when BTC was trading higher.
And there's another detail worth watching. Last week's US spot $BTC ETFs recorded roughly $300M in net inflows, but BlackRock's IBIT alone attracted ~$566M. The other funds collectively saw outflows. $ETH ETFs lost another ~$221M.
That's hardly broad-based demand.
Now add Big Tech earnings testing risk appetite, Coinbase reporting on crypto activity, and a large options expiry immediately afterward. Plenty of reasons for volatility. Far fewer reasons to assume every move reflects genuine demand.
I'm less interested in predicting Wednesday's first reaction. I want to see what happens after Friday's expiry, when positions have been rolled, hedges adjusted, and the headlines have settled.
A market reacting to news and a market attracting fresh capital are two very different things.
The second of three central banks this week.
ETF flows and spot demand back in focus.
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday; futures price roughly a 90% chance of a hold.
Ripple's Swell conference kicks off in New York.
Robinhood reports its third quarter.
A hold is largely expected. What Warsh says about December could matter more.
A month ago, markets leaned toward an October Fed hike. Today, futures price roughly a 90% chance of a hold.
So the decision itself is largely expected. What Warsh says about December could matter more, with fresh GDP and inflation data arriving less than a day later.
Big Tech earnings testing risk appetite.
Stellar's Meridian conference begins in Lisbon.
Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, less than a day after the decision.
US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation land less than a day after the Fed's decision, so whatever Warsh says about December gets tested immediately.
The second of three central banks this week.
Coinbase reports on crypto activity; Strategy on its BTC treasury.
The third central bank of the week.
Wage costs, one more read on inflation pressure.
About a third of Deribit's BTC options open interest expires; calls are nearly two-thirds of it.
Roughly a third of Deribit's BTC options open interest expires Friday at 08:00 UTC, about $11B.
Calls account for nearly two-thirds of that expiry, with significant positioning built when BTC was trading higher.
I want to see what happens after the expiry, when positions have been rolled, hedges adjusted, and the headlines have settled.
Weekend token unlocks for EigenLayer and Sui.
The month closes after a week of central banks, earnings and a large expiry.