Monday, October 26
US markets reopen
ETF flows and spot demand back in focus.
$BTC
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ETF flows and spot demand back in focus.
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday; futures price roughly a 90% chance of a hold.
Ripple's Swell conference kicks off in New York.
Robinhood reports its third quarter.
A hold is largely expected. What Warsh says about December could matter more.
A month ago, markets leaned toward an October Fed hike. Today, futures price roughly a 90% chance of a hold.
So the decision itself is largely expected. What Warsh says about December could matter more, with fresh GDP and inflation data arriving less than a day later.
Big Tech earnings testing risk appetite.
Stellar's Meridian conference begins in Lisbon.
Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, less than a day after the decision.
US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation land less than a day after the Fed's decision, so whatever Warsh says about December gets tested immediately.
The second of three central banks this week.
Coinbase reports on crypto activity; Strategy on its BTC treasury.
The third central bank of the week.
Wage costs, one more read on inflation pressure.
About a third of Deribit's BTC options open interest expires; calls are nearly two-thirds of it.
Roughly a third of Deribit's BTC options open interest expires Friday at 08:00 UTC, about $11B.
Calls account for nearly two-thirds of that expiry, with significant positioning built when BTC was trading higher.
I want to see what happens after the expiry, when positions have been rolled, hedges adjusted, and the headlines have settled.
Weekend token unlocks for EigenLayer and Sui.
The month closes after a week of central banks, earnings and a large expiry.
About $5.8B in net outflows followed the reopening of withdrawals.
Roughly $6.3 billion was stolen in what became the largest crypto hack on record.
According to DefiLlama, roughly $5.8B in net outflows followed the reopening of withdrawals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $643M in outflows on Friday.
The question isn't whether Binance can replace the stolen funds. It's whether confidence returns at the same speed.
Tuesday's elections could reshape expectations around US crypto regulation.
Devcon runs from Tuesday to Friday.
While traders are busy reacting to liquidity, politics and short-term supply, developers are still working on infrastructure that might matter years from now.
After over $800M in USDC was frozen, how much control should a stablecoin issuer have?
We've spent years talking about stablecoins as the foundation of DeFi.
But after reports of over $800M in USDC being frozen in connection with the Binance exploit, there's a more important conversation to have:
I'm curious whether Circle addresses this alongside its usual revenue and growth metrics.
Zcash is targeting its NU7 upgrade on Thursday.
Could shift the market's expectations for the Fed's next move.
Friday's employment report could shift the market's expectations for the Fed's next move.
And weaker economic data isn't automatically good news for risk assets, even when traders start hoping for easier monetary policy.
Trackers show 9.92M HYPE (~$924M). Hyperliquid Labs indicated closer to 180K.
Some trackers show roughly 9.92M HYPE unlocking on November 6, worth around $924M.
Sounds terrifying, right? Except Hyperliquid Labs indicated that the actual distribution would be closer to 180K tokens.
That's exactly why I don't like treating unlock dashboards as automatic sell-pressure indicators.
The last inflation print before the Dec 9 Fed meeting, with futures pricing roughly 75–80% odds of a hike.
October CPI is the last inflation print before the Dec 9 Fed meeting. After payrolls came in at 165K vs ~62K expected, futures price roughly 75–80% odds of a hike.
One detail most people will miss: the 2025 shutdown erased last October's data, so there is no official annual CPI rate this time. Only monthly changes.
If you see a YoY number, someone modeled it.
Treasuries get one session to react to CPI, then step away. Crypto keeps digesting it alone.
Strategy and Metaplanet were both flagged earlier. Changes hit Nov 30.
MSCI publishes its final list under the new non-operating company rules. Strategy and Metaplanet were both flagged earlier. An older JPMorgan estimate put forced selling near $2.8B for MSTR alone.
Passive funds follow index rules, not Bitcoin conviction. Changes hit Nov 30, but markets rarely wait that long to price it.
~160M ALLO from the first backer and contributor cliff: 63–80% of circulating supply, depending on the tracker.
About 160M ALLO from Allora Network's first backer and contributor cliff is scheduled. Depending on the tracker, that's 63–80% of circulating supply.
That much float into weak demand is a real test.
A second read on October, after a 1.3% MoM jump last month.
DTCC, Mastercard and Boris Johnson are on the speaker list.
Solana Breakpoint opens in London with DTCC, Mastercard and Boris Johnson on the speaker list.
I care less about the announcements and more about which products pull real users and liquidity after.