Wednesday, November 11
US bond market closed for Veterans Day
Treasuries get one session to react to CPI, then step away. Crypto keeps digesting it alone.
See the whole week ›Crypto trades 24/7. This week, most of what can move it gets decided by people who keep office hours.
Nothing scheduled
Nothing scheduled
Nothing scheduled
The backdrop: Fear & Greed at 28, ~$1.28B pulled from spot $BTC ETFs last week, and Binance still reopening networks after a $6.3B hack.
So the question I keep asking this week: who is forced to act?
We don't need another narrative right now. We need buyers.
Treasuries get one session to react to CPI, then step away. Crypto keeps digesting it alone.
The last inflation print before the Dec 9 Fed meeting, with futures pricing roughly 75–80% odds of a hike.
October CPI is the last inflation print before the Dec 9 Fed meeting. After payrolls came in at 165K vs ~62K expected, futures price roughly 75–80% odds of a hike.
One detail most people will miss: the 2025 shutdown erased last October's data, so there is no official annual CPI rate this time. Only monthly changes.
If you see a YoY number, someone modeled it.
Treasuries get one session to react to CPI, then step away. Crypto keeps digesting it alone.
Strategy and Metaplanet were both flagged earlier. Changes hit Nov 30.
MSCI publishes its final list under the new non-operating company rules. Strategy and Metaplanet were both flagged earlier. An older JPMorgan estimate put forced selling near $2.8B for MSTR alone.
Passive funds follow index rules, not Bitcoin conviction. Changes hit Nov 30, but markets rarely wait that long to price it.
~160M ALLO from the first backer and contributor cliff: 63–80% of circulating supply, depending on the tracker.
About 160M ALLO from Allora Network's first backer and contributor cliff is scheduled. Depending on the tracker, that's 63–80% of circulating supply.
That much float into weak demand is a real test.
A second read on October, after a 1.3% MoM jump last month.
DTCC, Mastercard and Boris Johnson are on the speaker list.
Solana Breakpoint opens in London with DTCC, Mastercard and Boris Johnson on the speaker list.
I care less about the announcements and more about which products pull real users and liquidity after.